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Fantasy Football: Start Sony Michel vs. Dolphins

Pete Davidson
December 08, 2018 - 3:48 pm
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Week 14 is here, and for some of us, it’s a week to focus on our playoff teams in seasonal leagues. For those of you in need of lineup advice for those seasonal teams, check out my full lineup rankings at Rotobahn.com. It’s all free. No registration required. Come on over and dig in.

For those folks whose season ended last week, this is a good time to dive into some daily football, and I have some ideas for Week 14 listed below.

For the freshest insights on all the Week 14 action, tune in to the Fantasy Football Hour, this Sunday morning right here on 93.7. Jim Hackett and I will take your questions (via text) and get you ready for Sunday!

All player pricing for this article was sourced from DraftKings.

Sony Michel, RB, Patriots at Dolphins, $5,900

Sony is my Patriot this week. I’m not using him in cash games, but I like him in large field tournaments like the Milly Maker on DraftKings. My thought process is not complicated. You can run on the Dolphins—it’s the best way to break them down in my view. Here’s the key. If you think the Patriots will play well and win, then you have to like Sony’s chances at piling up yardage and getting some goal line chances. If you are buying into the Patriots history of struggles in Miami, then maybe he’s a fade rather than a play. I can understand that outlook, but still, in tournament play, I like Michel just because I see him making a big impact if this one goes the Patriots’ way. So my advice is this. Project the game in your own head. If you envision a Patriots win, then start Michel.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys vs. Eagles, $8,600

Over the summer, when I posted my 2018 rankings, I was pushing Zeke pretty hard. The reason being that I expected a material surge in passing game involvement. It’s happened, and it makes Elliott one of the safer DraftKings plays on most weeks because his touches are so incredibly locked-in, and are now totally pervious to game flow. According to Rotoworld’s Evan Silva, “only Christian McCaffrey, James Conner, and Todd Gurley have run more pass routes than Zeke among running backs.” So, even if Dallas falls behind, you are still in the game with Zeke, who is a great bet to touch the ball 25 plus times. He’s a value—even at 8,600 units.

Chris Godwin, WR, Bucs vs. Saints, $4,900

I’ve been on Godwin a few times this year, including last week, when he went off for 101 yards and a touchdown. The rationale was clear. Godwin is a near every down player when DeSean Jackson is out. Well, Jackson is out once again, and Godwin is in a matchup where his team should be in throw mode for much of, if not all of, the game. It’s simple. The Saints score a lot of points and it’s very hard to run on them. This reality should have the Bucs throwing from the drop, but even if they try to run early, they should eventually be forced to the air. Godwin is a good value with a strong floor. The only words of caution I have here is that the weather could become an issue. Keep tabs on that just in case. The thing to look for are sustained winds at 20 mph or more. The wind is currently projected in the 10-15 MPH range, which is not problematic for a strong-armed quarterback like Jameis Winston.

The Three RB Values:

Jaylen Samuels, RB, Steelers at Raiders, $3,700

Jeff Wilson, RB, 49ers vs. Broncos, $3,800

Justin Jackson, Chargers vs. Bengals, $3,800

There’s a lot to unpack here. First let me say that I will be using all three of these backs but probably not all three in the same lineup. They are all high-quality cap space savers, and they all have the potential to blow up. There are also some risks or concerns with each option. For Samuels, I worry that he could end up watching Stevan Ridley once the Steelers have a big lead. This is more of a ceiling limiter than a big problem, but we excel in DFS tournaments by hitting on ceiling. What I love about Samuels is that he’s a great receiver for a running back, and this fits the DraftKings full PPR format perfectly.

Wilson is new on the scene but he seems to fit the Shanahan scheme and that’s a strong positive indicator. He’s also got receiving chops, so like Samuels, he fits the scoring system. My concern with Wilson is that the Denver defense is underrated in terms of stopping the run.

Jackson is perhaps the riskiest, but he may also have the highest ceiling. I say this because of the expected game script—that script has the Bengals playing the role of road apple and thus getting squashed early. This team is playing without their best weapon and without their starting quarterback. They are also playing weak defense on a consistent basis. So, while Austin Ekeler (Melvin Gordon has been ruled out) is ahead of Jackson in terms of the pecking order, the game script says that the backup guy could be featured throughout the second half. And consider this quote from HC Anthony Lynn. "He's (Austin Ekeler) wearing down a little bit. He's a core special teams guy for us and he's played a lot of running back for us. So he's a little tired. You might see Justin (Jackson) play a little bit more.” Unless Lynn is blowing pure smoke here, Jackson would seem like a great bet for volume in a blowout. There’s no clear best option or worst option with this group. I’ll be mixing and matching them in my lineups.