Max Kellerman: Bill Belichick will win another Super Bowl before Tom Brady

May 26, 2020 - 8:47 am

With Bill Belichick and Tom Brady now separated for the first time since Brady entered the NFL, the "Who's more responsible for the dynasty" debate has been joined by the related "Who will win another Super Bowl first" debate.

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On ESPN's "First Take" Monday, Max Kellerman -- who has had his fair share of controversial Patriots and Brady takes over the years -- weighed in, and sided with the head coach.

"Belichick will win first," Kellerman said. "First of all, Belichick is much more responsible for the Patriots' success and the Patriot Way than Brady, although Brady is also very responsible. If you have to ask, in the NFL, it's the head coach. It's the head coach.

"But beyond that, let's say you think Brady has a much better chance to win this year because the Bucs are loaded and they've got a great coach and they've got everything they need. There are 32 teams in the NFL. What do you think the odds are any one of them wins? Even if they're the odds-on favorite, and the Bucs are not the odds-on favorite. They don't have the best odds to win. They have among the best odds to win. What do you think the odds are that they win any given playoff game? Even if it's over 50 percent, it's 60 percent, 70 percent, you have to multiply that by the next round, 60 or 70 percent, if you think they still have those odds. By the time you're done calculating maybe they have, if you're being generous, a one in 10 shot to win the Super Bowl this year. And by the way, given Brady's age and decline, that's the best shot he'll ever have.

"Meantime, Belichick's going to be live every year. Look, the over/under on the Patriots is what, 9 1/2 games, 8 1/2 games? And they don't even have a roster! They lost everybody, including the quarterback, and people still think they're going to have a winning season. Belichick's going to be there every single year. They're going to win the Super Bowl first."

In his own weird, convoluted way, Kellerman is right to point out that Belichick's window will be open for longer given that he hasn't shown any signs of planning to retire any time soon.

Related: Tom Brady’s ‘Man in the Arena’? No thanks.