Across the Board - Mut breaks down the Preakness

WEEI Podcasts
Thursday, May 17th
Mike Mutnansky previews the 143rd running of the Preakness Stakes with Matt Bernier of the Daily Racing Form and Dick Jerardi of Xpressbet.com
00:59:18

Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.

On the bloody hand layered loved my stated so let's start the podcast with it. Hi hold him we'll go preakness won 43 this weekend in Baltimore this of course it crossed 44 times a year. Horse racing podcast W we guy. And on W we guide dot com fresh off to Kentucky Derby it's not justifiably we convincingly. We were on audible and that races rainy very credible third but look at that second place vote Reid loses second place audible buzz. By a nose to good match. That changed the date for it would have been it was a good day it would have been a great day just couldn't get up. He'll have another chance that sounds like in three weeks and Belmont to get it on it but that's the reeks and now this weekend is the preakness. There are years quite frankly folks we sit down at you this podcast the preakness or to sit down to gamble. Two weeks after the derby where there are compelling reasons to go to the windows and bet two fisted against the derby winner. This does not feel like one of those years as we get you set for the preakness whereas last year and we did this you could point to a good set up. Our rail Raun. And even the inside bias they are Churchill Downs that to help get always streaming into the winner's circle. In last year's Kentucky Derby. You get the same thing this year you read justify. Go to the front. Win and win convincingly. I he ran a huge race this was not. Super C erupt the rail this is not my nap or this was a dominant. Derby performance. Two weeks ago at Churchill Downs yes it came up sloppy. But he was on the fun and the entire way it was justified. Blazing pace in any draws off. He draws off the pace is fast and I thought it was going to be I just expected it just I was the lead. He wouldn't survive. No two year old foundation. Had ever been a mile and a quarter obviously no way get to on any doesn't. His half mile Kyl 47 of four was the third fastest half mile time in the history of the freaking Kentucky Derby. He was never threatened good magic was never getting there audible great run Mike picked ran third. Was never getting there. Close but he would steal it may eat good match was second best. And he can run around the second time. And he was not gonna get past justified he laid waste to that field. And so he comes back this week. And we know a couple things heading it's the preakness we'd always fast. We going get the distance we know can tell what track and that's another storyline this weekend it is going to be a ball hog. An absolute slop fest at Pimlico for this thing. Old Hilltop. Is going to be a monsoon the next 244872. Hours so fast distance wet track. There are no chinks in the armor for justify. This doesn't feel like the weekend to be against the war again a mock nip it in the favorite I've already seen it on Twitter. Acted on Kirk and Callahan. On Thursday morning pick in the favorite pick in the favorite when it's in your life tale the north gonna win. Sometimes you give you take what the racing form gave you in this case the good viewing stand out. A standout in the preakness in justified so two weeks after the derby. Doesn't feel like the weaken it to be against him three weeks are now on the Belmont Stakes. Going a mile and a half. Where is him running sixth race in sixteen weeks that will be a different story eat you pick your battles when it comes to on this type of thing. This is not a battle that I'm gonna I hate taking favorites. He just appears Q2 good. Just because he's short. Italy looks rock solid does or we can't make money couple numbers for. Last fifteen years the average runner up in the preakness. Has been twelve to one and affects several last fifteen years ten to one or higher. The average exact over last fifteen years a hundred bucks. And the last eleven. Had a horse at least five to two in the top two and it still pays out is there's a lot of money in these polls three the last eight try expected. Can come back over a thousand dollars for book so. Justify looks invincible on paper they are still ways to make money not to this podcast hopefully next forty minutes or so will help you do you Heidi you make money. Would they wonder five favor. We'll try to do that this weekend affect every handicap consequent country will try to do that next done 4440 hours at Pimlico. Of all the podcast that we do. This one has the best our raw and that's not scientific budget mean looking back in and against him but we had the winner last year I get it much ever picks a winner. I'll we'd like cloud computing plastered upset always treating he was thirteen to one. Exaggerated the year before we picked him up at night with he got a does the second choice. Three years ago burning your I port you know I'll put you want ironic is in the Dixie. And I feel like the American Ferrell in the preakness and crushed. That double came back 34 box. And Matt Bernie ears is that we talked a couple minutes he's been huge on these days. He's been huge so Dick Girardi Morgan talked you he gave you the derby winner justified. And burners can operate mystic so that's the hope even if we think that justified. Can't be beat. We're gonna try to build on that this weekend evil a short field booming and the field is not great. This weekend at AMOCO even with the very wet weather in the forecast the next couple days the goal here is that justify wins we still make money. That's the goal every time you go to better wagered at Mohegan Sun you blogging your eighty W the point is to make money even when he won a five shot like justify. Wins the race. And so we'll try to do that the next forty minutes or so gay he set. For preakness 143 will do so a couple of gash you heard of for derby day map Bernie here is back from the daily racing form the raft dot com. The formulate a plan like that the RF is the best you should check it out look and think you're handicapping to the next level. I'm Dick Girardi used picnic twice dirty words in a row at this point like justify justify rolled. You'll join us to wealth response on the preakness I'm against what I'm not gonna break any news here but the podcasts like justify. The question is how to make money would justify winning we'll try to figure that out by going over the race itself the other contenders values that were loosely given. How short this field is. And the other big race attacked the tire pick five on Saturday will go through up infield the preakness hope we give you some ideas. Our other races that Tibet and get yourself involved in it. On preakness day it's going to be wet it'll be sloppy and feels like I'm gonna be dominated by the derby winner justified. Preakness 140. Second jewel of the Triple Crown there on the Baltimore and preakness won 43 bad for your immediately racing form. Which part of the coverage on Saturday the arrest and the Iraq dot com and of course by now you guys know them formulate or player. Check out the four Wheeler PPP's. At daily racing form the best PP's the yourself ready for the preakness were coming off the derby that saw. It pretty dominant winner will see with the guys think about going with or against justify this weekend Matt Matt's. That's we start the conversation to me is normally I like the preakness because you can poke some holes and in the derby winner. But we saw a damn good derby run by justify a couple weeks ago. Certainly did and I think you've got to look at it they might have been about derby. Singular effort that we've seen in the past by ten year Israeli what you consider a bat they went early on the position he took up the condition of the rate and serpents. Eight took a couple different ways that it. Took a shot from bull Toro split and await the shop good magic in good that you really never got back close to him and he still had a lot in the tank. I very deserving winner of the Kentucky Derby at a very very deserving short right on the air at Saturday at all. Yeah it was everything I thought about the pace scenario going in I thought we faster than some people expected. I didn't expect if a horse was going to be on the front and especially justify. I didn't think he go want with it and he was never really challenged CO audible is close to good magic for. On the nose for second. The pick gone around there again I don't think good magic in even audible loyal liked. Was go on my justify he did not look like fatigue was going to be an issue for him even with that pace with the with the third fastest half mile pace in the history that there. That would make this Saturday so much more difficult for anybody else trying to do he got fired a shot against the indicated if you think he runs. Something close to what he ran the derby probably going to win and there's this scenario would not impossible that bank of but he got he picked up over here in the street coming up on Saturday afternoon because he's probably gonna have any your goat on the front end. And if you think good magical long that's what the plan the plan was to get ready for the first Saturday in May and is kind of an afterthought then. Boy outside and it it's very difficult to find a horse that you really truly believe they can tell someone on the idea of all the thunder gonna jump up with some effort is that it justified justified though argues for rate these are all better than anything anyone else Matilda Iran. People go to the preakness field here in the second had to cap off hard to recap here Matt I know you were on team Mandelson. I he did not run well are you drawing a line through that is there an excuse for Mandelson in the derby couple weeks ago. Yeah I I think it it's. Insane that people are saying that the horses of body care Roddick you take a side play that game like that Unita are ready to justify at that happened. He's not win in Kentucky Derby I love that O'Brien it's been candidate had ever been going back over he Europe's saying. It was basically like a wild. Concert out there we were not prepared for and I respect you know what they learned something it down like. If all goes as planned he's probably gonna come back for rate like the Travers and get ready for the Breeders' Cup classic so I I have to be out I don't know where he'll show up next. The weathered a trap deserted the Breeders' Cup the week you didn't see the real Mendel than their whether he would win the derby or not or would have been close and competitive I had on Noelle I'll. I still think he's elder go to court and argument of the jets whenever they come back. And you're like there for awhile you wanna see them come back and I think you said that sound like they're gonna come back on dirt with him. Are you going to be ready to fire at right away on him back on dirt on US soil or do you wanna see something first you addicting as you're gonna look for. When he does or term because basin at the betting money took in the derby. No matter where he shows up people can abet him and he's going to be a shorter price that he probably should be based on effort. Yeah I don't know how what this so overall perception because you have Gillick there were two camps here on this course where one camp like myself say. You can you can learn anything from that and then you get the other camps saying. If Clinton any good to begin that you visit Dubai sort of wonder we used in those horses go by the way site. And he. If he comes over here he's got to be ready to go and other all it is prepped by. O'Brien knock them over here to get embarrassed again and not I don't want that it compares Kentucky but. Including didn't go let's play and I think they would only come Europe or is ready to go for a big upper now you want it day he can't stand up and wet track hernia that I've heard you know that your simply because. Again that body and out of the gate people like I don't think they're taking that seriously enough it completely got wiped out he had no chance to run its rate becomes over year. I'm gonna assume he's ready to go work up. I he is not the field this weekend 543 preakness seven are lining up tick on justify and as Matt mentioned and it's his seal stating the obvious. He is by far the horse to beat and unlike last year where we're always streaming or some holes that the punch in his derby performance. Given how well justified it was able to run in the derby. And given the field he's running against he is such a comical standout here Matt I'll start with the the obvious question. Paint this scenario besides where leave this with these into the Mandelson sites like. Let's assume a clean break in this knowing during the like that. Paint this scenario begets justified beat on the square Saturday and in Baltimore. I it did and I'm being an entirely honest I don't know I can't. Cook up wanna let there is something bizarre that happened to be does it missed the break entirely eerie get wiped out. I suppose maybe it over copyright from Mike Schmidt where he could think he's on a million the best it and just throws. Sort of you know all caution to the wind just goes on which to cut ought to happen. 45 but he does indeed who but I. I probably racing standpoint if everything goes away 888. We would hope it does on the where there's no issues with anyone Ernie and I yet I can't cook up it's an area where he doesn't work out a perfect or whether on the leaders sitting just off. Takes over going into the arc serve like he didn't derby ankle not a threat to stop by I just YE a very difficult time envisioning and looting that's right. It's it's one of these things I I hate doing it I hate deferring to the favorite but. He's just such a comical stand out on paper normally you get the derby hero erupted here and you can kind of make the case of US exaggerate or Mike Quist. A couple of years ago when you thought OK different trip for exaggerated he's getting a wet track that you like I made the case that derby the preakness or exaggerate or. I like good magic he's a good horse he ran a good derby. But I just don't see where something changes that drastically. For the derby erupt two weeks later and he's a good horse and and it put it 31. Feels like a horrendous debt as the second choice in this race just by that's going to be way to short to order a look for alternatives and it. I I just don't I don't see what changes for him in two weeks I just dolce. Our guys already at number of people all that I was wrong about the magic going into the derby I didn't like him any ran back a lot better than I thought he would. Now here we are two weeks later. And I can't help but think the plan all on project clearly wanted the first Saturday in May at that or ready to Pete and get what he Rand about break his career. The problem is eating get within that they get the job that by now two weeks later and immediately coming out of the derby Chad was very wish you watch your body running year. It's like giving an afterthought to meet all signs are against the war like good magic he's the second best or the rate is really little question about that bought. I think it and it's been like it if if you think justify that don't call block and sometimes it doesn't make sense to try to go get the favor you and I were always try to be the favorite but. Sometimes it doesn't make any sense to do debt. I think you're in it which you're trying to play the rate is to try to go against justified back in the third because. I think Garrett very unenviable position where realistically. If you're gonna try to be justified you're probably don't want that in and take Iran Adam Burt and maybe you had that paying the price or. As for the other six courses man this is not a deep previous field and Miller it's because of people now point to the Belmont Matt more than the preakness the preakness assortment shuffled back is the third most important. A teachable crown race is now the lone sailor out of the derby he ran OK he cuts in traffic early for Basel. Renal opera and I expected it. I mean this is not a good field outside of that and so you just expect that. You know something crazy gonna have to happen for anyone else to really be competitive in this group as you look at the other six besides the derby winner and the runner up. Who stands out to you his potential fill out your exact to fill your theory to trifecta into perfect is at the back after this field. You named bolt of blown Baylor but they'll cut neighbor but though I study re really well Dick ducky derby but but I thought he would consider he was light every step of the way get a little bit of all of early on he actually put it a bit of a mild beta. In the middle rate crowd in the ark charity like now late I think the reason I'm with him as impressed with that rate that a wise. We've got to derby was an unmitigated disaster for the course he basically he's. Gone by the app while fall and technique as a scenario where you can just really envisioned it as the derby was his first break in the written star. If you're as well beat it there I think you're gonna get up or move here on Saturday. What track Ukraine despite in the oval it'll pick up going to be any sort of an excuse me he's the horse but I want second. And I EL a lot of sailor I'm you'd both those courses and second because that doubled they'll rent just fine. It'll all get a little bit trouble got stacked up going into the far turn but. After that he came up it wouldn't finish very very well. He's the kind of course that I feel like is one of the more likely candidate to run second third or fourth because you know what they're game they got taken back to make one run. What track not a problem but. Me again if you're playing it straight by itself. The goal to try to beat good match not to be justified because he just looks like he's he's very very up on April walker but don't expect a lot on tailored third. One horse to a might have been a third choice in this field this quip and I'm going to be against football together mat complaint tries and troopers. And key not justify on top of the get away with slow paces. It is race is an old they pointed here the ownership big house was an ownership stake in justified at the weird set up there. I want no part equipment he might be what the 141513. Choice by the time we go off on Saturday after. It might even be shortened he's probably going to be the third choice here and I greatly you know you know we talked about it a little bit we did post position draw. Video on PR dot com that. And yet talk about deal but the road courses don't buy when are justified don't buy went dark quick running style in period beat all the place you really think they're gonna just. Because the brain dead and a caught in one or the possibility of Triple Crown I think that insane I think quip unfortunately we distraught. Large or ethnic that they can because if you don't go you're on the rip it ever becoming overrun you get shuffled back at all sorts optic underpaid. And if you go you're probably at their opposition to you because you're gonna get goose cooked by justify. But he either very very difficult position here and I help but they get a little bit but I know they had or needed the more time in the cubicle wall long. You all fight the derby and chose not run that he would ever pot. On the long shot I'm gonna try to get involved here and the the tribe in the super is going to be diamond King and I was curious about like I'm thinking it's gonna have to be. Slower pace than I certainly slow pace in the derby that's definitely gonna happen but he's gonna have to be there in that fell off front played a horses and hang on. Offer second maybe third would Jamaican diamond king I'm guessing at Tommy's useful on paper too obvious factor in this race. He's it is go to win but that doesn't mean a second or thirty made mention it did not particularly strong field in the preakness I just I'm concerned about the running style where you could be for the plate. I'll close the going to be. You'll or like justify how much exit date out of them but when you look at the torch through it like I'm start. He has done anything wrong draw light of the Jockey Club obviously because the dump the writer under the first start but outside of that. Argued or the government out of the body he'd been exactly one or the let them start it tonight or I could get giant guy right in here and even considering is the local hope he might beatle longest shot the border one out shot the. Thirty to 1 on the morning line Paula be higher as Mattis saying I will use him. In trifecta is an and other plays vertically with justifies so you and tired under faulting too. A monster on paper justify which leads to the question many people listening and ask. You do this every day Matt you you handicap these races. On how do you approach a race we have a stand out favorite how we structure tickets what are the pools you wanna be bald win with. To make just to buy shopping justified a win at two to 51 to five so how does that burn your play this pre. But it sides of adopting it you're looking at a global rate them point at the other shoe that it it looks like it's going to be a deluge down there from sure it's been raining all week it looked like it's gonna continue what the the multi rate wagers. I would have a problem being single the loan a tool or like justify in the pick for the pick five and oh. That get up and earlier or just kinda really fret my opinion and played Kirk. Five dollars or three dollars or whatever it may be prompted individual rate employed. Kind of alluded to I'm just trying to be good magic act illiquid magic is or if you can defeat in the you can create a little bit about that it would be to look over betting that the combination. In and as long and I remember he dropped by good magic exacted to pay about. If you buy that so if I could throw out good magic act and get the pot so in that correct and get lone sailor and there. All the sudden he exacted begun. A plate I'm mildly intrigued itself. That's probably by being played there abuse justify over those duke probably dabble a little bit with a right back it would Batman to perfect if I can just as good magic import those two. Second or third perhaps that create. I and you mentioned at the elephant in the room were taping this on Thursday the expectation is an absolute washout five inches of rain. In the DC Baltimore area and in cases like this map I just urged people. Tell it to watch the races prior to the preakness if you're if you're going to be betting these races on Saturday. I would keep in mind the track because there are certain days we get this much rain. And biases can appear or trends can appear were speed is playing well the insides playing well that's always. Pretty good a chemical anyway or maybe the outside I think today we got make you keep your head on a swivel and keep an eye out for these things and if you're seeing things during the day that might affect who you like or don't like come preakness. Daughter percent I mean did it one of those instances where and I suppose the good news is you're going to have basically a week's worth those. Or weeks or be have a couple days straight and the other track to complain and get what the conditions probably going to be. Pretty damn close to what did it on Saturday or Thursday Friday so. Will be it and see what how much more rain we do it that getting but I agree be 100% you gotta pay attention. How the track is playing throughout the day to get things can change very very quickly and we can't overstate it happened in the derby and not quite that long. In Baltimore but the time between races. It's just astronomical. So so much can happen whether they go out they look detracted elect line the you name it the track in change and you did it do your due diligence and I have to be on the beat duke frankly. Probably throttle back a little bit on what you would normally wager big it is slot. Random things happen anybody that funny ducked when that day miles as god what a yeah I don't I came up that like. That's exactly the kind of result but on net bank I you could give me a million dollars I would have one single dollar or two went so. Did you did do your due diligence and probably keep keeping governor on the ol' accelerator on. And and I would say look it's a pretty random at times sport anyway and it becomes really roulette on horseback when you get this type the weather. The track plays the way did specifically Matt mentioned pat they mile on derby day I know I've backed off mile bankroll. On derby dale Pug a similar setup the preakness. Especially given that I don't think they can beat justify all feel differently three weeks I believe in the Belmont will be some better. Opportunities take shot to justify and that race but this one feels like justify. Ever else running for second inning Triple Crown on the line 32 Saturday. In a lot New York so we are both the faulted to justify chalky weasels here. I in the three to go to some of the races Matthew finds of prices people. Over the weekend I wanna go back to Friday. These are the black eyed Susan preakness double this is going to be Friday afternoon. At about 448 it's the counterpart to the preakness it's the three year old fillies going a mile and an eighth. I thought a couple of horses that are our morning line short odds horses. Like coach rocks and midnight disguise the red ruby all seem logical. Where to land the black eyed Susan people can use this as a double. In two the preakness on Saturday. Stated that probably Al and other wagered on a plane because I don't think it's a all the air raid on the flip side is preakness where you got justify. You've got it bad I don't think there any superstars in air I've always got a little pink number five or rob Graham motion. On paper she is impossibly low should it would this race but I like advantage I don't think any these girls. A particularly good and Ali Don we see at a mile and an eight for summary this rate turned into an absolute stagger back and it it's a war restriction as you can be out that it been. A little bit better than anybody else rather not have a problem but it didn't. And really I would encourage anyone to go back and watch that most recent rate divert people 48 that laurel. I understand you impede anything in the air but keep it at the right way she was loaded behind horses and finally which got clear. She absolutely rolled all very infrequently you beat or put pick an app leg. Between herself and direct appeal in the finally have a mile she did just that I love the way to keep it is going to be an enormous price. What track I don't think that's going to be an issue. They get big chance that a rate that again I don't bug but had a good one is very Allah if I did. There's going to be a lot of short about a big shot with a five rabbit 31. Yang and the price is not great in the morning line that I see a lot of people picking the source to I like to red ruby a little bit but it seems like might be the steam Morse is a huge workout note. I've sounds like from the last six furlong workout a key win. I probably Beatrice at around five to one of the number four or red ruby especially given she's one for one on a wet track shows that 83 buyer speed figure. In the slop bad two races back and oak lawn. But that five to once it's unlikely given the amount of steam there so I'm would you mates where external model little bit there get to justify its yourself Bob. In the black eyed Susan preakness double that something they'd we made some money on a couple weeks a couple years ago on this podcast Matt I mentioned the open. Before he came on that this has been probably our best are alive podcast and that's thanks to Matt burn your who a couple of years ago. You and I loved ironic it's in the Dixie that at that point the Dixie we ran Ron right before the preakness and the ironic kissed American Ferrell double. He's 34 box he had to stand out in the preakness if you liked erotic issue made money that day. The Dixie is no longer that the the free race for the preakness the running much earlier in the day. Seventh race on Saturday because sort of the preakness whisper and the Dixie whisper so we need 888 Dixie take on Saturday. Wonder ought to read into that separate because you've got two big names and you've got world approval got a bit Darrow. As far as they're concerned. It is Darrell idol beat though running on her forever today but you know what he's right he could certainly come with a kick I don't wanna find out short putt on Saturday. But he air yet they'll run. The world Kool Aid or on paper he's supposed to witness rates life. Think they're not gone according to plan for the horse throughout the entire twenty eking campaign that sparked. Keep in mind they were going to run in Dubai chose not to do that after the rate campus instead they go. Decal or you would I not just getting a stop gap. To rate like the turf mile down tag team. And Andy audible from that we go to rate like that are classic at Churchill quote what the film role was terrible or I have no idea what happened. It is sort rock solid usually showed up with a good effort it was terrible to L four and he's run well at Anthony in the Pat Hurst and California in general. To me I just you can have them on Saturday he went doll lose. I've never liked fire away but I got to believe he might be and now of course it's an old cliche each year we talked about should with the horses and they get older they get better and better. I think that's not what the court this right now he continued to improve its hard to ignore delete or report aqueduct and he's only once but I'm total of his career by. I thought that wanted to sample was fine in not considering that purports to be currently throughout the entire meeting. And I thought it needed Beaconsfield a bit aqueduct most recently on eight the papal I think that off the bench I flat out fire in the field while two. And you know what. He's fine on and off go as far as Europe is concerned I expected to be some give I just don't want world Ruble and I don't trucked into the Darrow immunity inform or topic. Our we use this that actually four related stat for derby day on leave that one of those turf race at Churchill. Should McGahee second off layoffs stakes races on the grass he somewhere near 30% this is a move for showed. Out of that race and aqueduct sets him up for this beautifully I'm completely with the I would take six to one right now on fire when the number one horse in the Dixie so hopefully you and I. Are on the right horse there it showed again its fire away and maybe a price to get into some on the races later on in the day. One of the ways you can maybe make money feel like justify is playing the pick five on Saturday that's races nine through thirteen. Let's get a take on the night the race here is the gal wrecked another turf race mile and a sixteenth. I had a tough time with a race Matt nothing really stood out to me to kick off pick five. It another rate where Cambodia if you runs. Wait he's capable of running probably supposed to win I just don't know what version of Cambodia we're gonna get I thought she was very poor in the matriarch into the Jenny wiley was basically and not effort for and I don't say much better course there's debate let alone and get her over the top. Media world I've never a fan of I understand she makes sense that a great like it but I've just never really been blown away by current and all of a sudden you're left with. Yet figured shot somewhere I go to the North American debut for what silence wasn't particularly strong. Eight or buyer in. By that we just overall low figured she'd probably run against the great field. I love the fact that she's run well she had not sought or you'll be in going over Europe prior to getting over here are up on my. Clearly did it feel like it's what they plan. Roderick data allowance rate. Second off the bench ever shipped out here run spot like it if you catch. Soccer goalie at squarely back going to be an issue I liked it a rat bait the board. Opera what do port and electability game record but 92 and her next start though you'd think that what did filed it moved up. Into the low ninety's maybe should not the most likely winner but. You delete it there was departures at that there should be plenty of eight in here so I will give it Dick what style a little but the look. And on the twelfth race which is the appetizer for the thirteenth which is the preakness interesting move hereby. The folks at AMOCO. The race prior to the three year old going a mile and three sixteenths. Is a three year old race the sir Barton which is always at the junior varsity version of the preakness league get a three year old route race before the preakness then you get the preaches itself. And it might be as simple as it's a Bob Baffert exact the because he is. Ax man why don't you talked about before he looks like a complete stand out in this race if he shows up but he can run the mud. Right there are all running for second behind ax man and it might be just Baffert dominate those two racist and epic five. Very well horseback and it's hard to argue would what he's done girl like that and the and they would just went unbelievable except early he got cook otherwise you're left with a 970101. If you're the one don't want it probably is simply going to wind I I'm a little bit concerned about the wet track we don't know how they'll handle that and all so. I think it is a lot beaten this rate so I let you out there waited on the front end. Eight is better than everyone helped them put them away. One thing or that show a new dimension that he has shown yet that coming from if you like saw that it all horse that. Another life Billick now a broken record I've never really love but I like the weight and most recently collecting in the pony up. Todd Johnny B is gonna come mop the paid the thing is going to be plenty of speed that banged up so my boy Jack in the derby ran well enough that ninety require. I don't on the I think pony up the eat it or only superstar and outlined it certainly not held the ax man but it may be an instance where. Maybe the circumstances that out parole or coming from off the end to all star line down the road but taking a future give me act and every day but. Maybe it is in it were pony up inside you get a little bit of value Becker there. Well we are wrong unfortunately. Pushing that justify bandwagon we both liked him in the preakness based on the end of the field here base the way he ran in the derby. I'm Matt liking proviso underneath lone sailor as well we'll see when it could magic. Out of the top two will be all over the racing form on Saturday you'll see is analysis the raft doc common course formally at a PP's the best way. To get set Matt. And have fun this weekend and it's it does feel like we are now going to be three weeks away from a talk about another Triple Crown opportunity for Bob Baffert. Let's hope that Belmont lived up to its billing a beautiful Belmont it rained this rainy miserable. Were due for some nice weather at some point right I mean here in a way out of the your your Red Sox are are playing well they got back to their winning ways it's nice weather for the the final leg of the Triple Crown. I don't know what great inducted about the nature. Hopefully I've ankles not this this weekend Matt good luck we'll know we'll talk to you before the Belmont thanks. But it is preakness won 43 and one of the best ways to get yourself ready for the preakness is the go to express that dot com. And check out their free preakness wagering dried guide award winning writer Dick Girardi is with that's courtesy of that great expressed that dot com wagering guide. You go there right now with the preakness wagering guide it is free Opel within a certain state not the sign up. It's right there on the front page you'll see wagering guide as at the great information including our buddy Bob knew Meyer. Against justify this week it in the preakness which is newbies wade do and it. Pick epic the chalky when it's a standout horse like justified Dick Girardi was on justify in the derby. It's strike great decade another derby winner here and podcasts. Yeah I appreciate that my boy it has been a good run lately so mom obviously have been favorites but you know what that is when your paper as. Justify it by the way to get to that exact there may do little future book that it is good. Yeah in this case the the pretty form full the way the derby ended up running between a justified good magic and it. Audible running for third map party and I'm just talking about it. This is not I'm looking back at the derby watching the replays. I just can't find anything negative to say about justify going in with I awarded about the seasoning obviously the two year old campaign was nonexistent. But he ran fast early he ran fast the middle any kicked away this is good derby performance we've seen a long time. The public Bob efforts agree Mike he won the derby at this time. And he says this was his best derby winner a whole group and obviously the great names repair according to Triple Crown winners are. That tells you laden yet but city itself. Not only to withstand it let nobody was gaining any ground on them in the last 200 argued during straight intrude. He kept going this is just say brilliant horse of the altitude that. In the first seven days of his career and culminated with the Serbia's justice stop. Let and I are aware he ranks all time you've spent a lot wart that time in his business and and you can speak to a better than I can but. In my crazy YCEO. Is somewhere in the mix of the best dirt trainers. In the history of the sport you think about American Ferrell and irrigate and now this horse who looks like he's on his way to Lisa Triple Crown attempt. What he's done with horses on on dirt seems almost unmatched at least in recent times it. Yeah I mean the only comparison in really would be weightlessness in his heyday. But is it really perpetrators there like like Bob Baffert isn't. But I was gonna go one B Utley and it's partly all those great course is wearing he never shot for a program and charismatic on the some some Mets themselves and although really good horses C. And it's of Bebop if this were ways one Saturday. Going to be their job and it's not like he just went straight wins the Breeders' Cup classic he went speak two year old races. Yeah I think you could make that case since Andy's not here but it's not alike. One is what he's been out for one thing he's got the win in the big dirt races and how quick he could make a pretty strong case. He's as good as anybody and as you keep adding to a record he made the album basically he has about that. And you start to look for things right and for at least for me like I don't want to bet the favorite race like this it I'm loath that the pick up a one to two shot all won a five shot. But you look at the the form which if you look at the races you're buying a formidable candidate its our receipts stands out on paper of goodies. You start to look for other things like you'd look at the train okay is the trainer. Had issues a two week turnaround if Todd Pletcher has a program right Dick you his program is this program and two weeks is not a good move for him Baffert. As for derby winners he's four and all when they come back in the preakness so. When he try to look at that the trainer in this case and poke a hole in it you can't duke has Baffert this a move that has worked really well for. He's trying his sources at and generally West Coast trainers. Courses against Todd Pletcher Janet brown do not and matrix successful these coast. They try to Margaret. And they are. Bitter and they can come back faster now maybe in some cases they not last that long on the spot. Good three year old is generally let the for as long as they needed the last. But yeah it it is different it is a different message pot is bad bureau's success in the preakness with a two derby winners they both ran terribly. He's so for two and neither is the border or rent or any good at all on that one again. And pops with derby winners and all the orgies now calling on the brink is that in every case of been an extremely impressive in winning it so yeah no reason to think that sources that. So on paper he snaps with standout you do a lot of work with the folks at buyer speed figures some embrace beat for you look at including a buyer. He's a stand out in this race olasky when asked map Bernie here. Barring an injury barring some sort of big you know let you stumble out of the gate. Pena scenario where justify it loses on Saturday. Yeah I can't come up with one he's got. Four fire figures. Better than any bigger any horse in the race has ever done. All figures are better than the only course even as the triple villages that magic as a hero when he had a hundred. Early in totals stand out. I thought the post draw really was perfect for hand held it for sponsors and ship much beat him in airplane. Jaaber sent one out there to your age of the product to get much respect for the derby where and pop rapper. So it going to be. Like is going to be just outside potentially can be it was subtly that nobody goes out and up against there. And it worked at entropy of the derby in slower fractions. Very adult. We have scenario although one Q now. It gets them because he's gonna get the trip. Obviously the best source Hillary's. No reason that they do anything it's and it was there by. You watch man on track sir looks like it's worse than it was before that Kirby and I about it. Did lose any weight at all. Anyway now under house more than Americans are now there's this sources. To be that big net nimble and that adds that the rare combination. You get beat this. Yeah and the pace was wicket in the dirt reed the pace is not going to be that fast in this race and I suspect that Mike Smith really wants to. Hoping he could just send the horse of the far right that's kind of a bath for Mike Smith move where the best horse let's put about fraud make a multi Asus for mile 360. Are. You could make the case now it's obviously better feel that he faced the necessitated Serbia on the temple or. It was it or that there aren't a lot in front runners. At the clippers on I'm when they're not on their luck and don't run with justify. It's it's for people don't know Winstar also want to big piece of justify. So I I think there's a better than that she that he is going to be absolutely centers infractions and then. If you have to make the decisions are archer at Brad and Jose Ortiz what are they going to do. I think they've made the decision of the derby we're gonna stay closer than normal because we think this is that where we have to beat. And they did and they ran great. And it couldn't catch him so what do they do now with the Mets did they try to send him out after just the fight earlier. Lactic that at some measure that might like it aptly so that they're really wanted it happen again early decision writes about Alec. What's funny go back to look at these Triple Crown races and you have like course like commanding curbing these big prices Vic Gideon. You find out afterwards that the trainer in the jockey work trying to win the race their running for second running for a third trying to hit the board. That the horse that I I've focus in on a price is diamond king Dickie you wrote about timing king because John's service. There are Pennsylvania you covered him with this Marty Jones Ron and obviously the a fleet Alex in that group and then there's been some good mid Atlantic courses that you have been. Covering along Triple Crown trail. Are they trying to win this race this to the cash is king people that they know that try to hit the board here what's the plan would diving king you do have a shot at 3035. To one. To get involved the trifecta here. Yeah I talk strategy with John well if not what you pick look at him potentially try to be good magic is such regularly make money. That. The justified regret that it almost set in Kentucky are sick and all the Morse they're not going to be a lot. Of value at. Here's what I think. I think it's jobs or is would be thrilled to be the worst horror. On duck that you cash is game one of the owners you know deplete Alex is a competitor you want to win but look he's also realistic. About links slower than just the fire they're well run the estuary. As I don't think it's likely. He is out there. They copier. How are not necessarily. Sending wider course protesters beat him in on where he talked one on and for what you don't think you wanna do that. Visit Europe they're battling with justify I'm sure it'll look the tell tale I think this strategy is the people I'm seeing students getting sent her murder. Getting in an exact physical factor. I you mentioned some of the the other run your runners here quip but skipped the derby point to here. Lone sailor obviously gonna get a lot of pull based on his struggles early in the derby. Time is saying he wants to be closer here that's always good trying to clone golf the rest of this field who stands out when he get pied justifying good magic Dick. Who the horses that you wanna use underneath and try to spice up exact isn't trifecta. I haven't changed a lot from my expressed that wagering guide. In era at good match for I think he supports a source not these these obviously the second. Were you protect it's not these group at all walk. But I think it's it's strainer intentions I don't think chaparral. I think he wants to win. And if they're gonna take early rotted justify I think they're gonna get beaten and jet doesn't come back two weeks. I'm gonna try to be good magic. I like for bonds and ten fold I thought for those rates in the derby was. Sneaky good I already made in I run not that many horses were comment from behind. I thought he ran pretty well. A little partly no no problem but if they can come back to that might. Low ninety fire I think it's going to be I think just because now it went but essentially what about watt. That's the kind of thing that could sneak in perspective. Intent ultimately. Some of pearl and who administration and those seven and each of his races a little better. And I don't think there were thrilled with the right last time so they went back since one let him and his first two races. That's a horse is also interesting to me at twenties but. It. Work just try to get the sense of you know what the best one of them are probably try to see where. And good magic carpet court is going to be the third choice in the fact that meets to whack at it and the. Beats me to Bernie and I talked about I want no part equipped by I think that he's taken advantage slow pace is that you mentioned. The ten fold the thing I can't figure out because he was on a really slow pace that day in the Arkansas derby. And just had nothing in the lane you thought given the way that pace set up these close enough to woody should add some Ron. The magna mood equipped as rain around there if Santana gets back to those rides previously. He can probably make some noise at some around twenty to one such an interesting one it would hit most said that the horses in that field and I feel that the consensus here on this podcast is going to be. He's just too good it's going to be justifies day. It's an hour trying to figure out other races here this week on make some money on Dick awarded a couple spot to view. Or get out all turn that the page backed at the Friday the black eyed Susan. Sets up the black eyed Susan and preakness double any thoughts there on the filly counterpart to the preakness on Friday night. Yeah Alex or street in nine to Google the doors were out here McLaughlin. I thought that he has felt really great we have been a big number 91. Now mind as though it did not lie at all and the Tokyo you very disappointing so. That there's a potential that widget that there's preparation is what we thought it wants but only get one more look I think she get the right trip that will outside. The the horse to beat me look look like there's this this good when Adidas seven local wars we just want to over racism against them. But did start late forties you wonder what their connections but the imaginary India the black arts citizen and a and rightfully midnight is accurate. That offer more. In April on that he's getting like person and rattle Ortiz and maybe give her another shot. At coach rock does that fire in in Kentucky and alteration of Marco but never never let up a big number. So I'm trying to economic coach pitino and and coach rock collection or street and. Now has a definite shot from the outside post positions. There in the black eyed Susan looked at a couple races Saturday people are gonna. You'll be like us here and think that justify can't illusion met on a plate pick threes pick for the pick five into justify. In the preakness I'll let the tenth race the Merrill wants brand. In their sometimes you'll look at race the first time the portal or stands out for me Dick. I'll long haul they on the outside for Chad Brown stood out like a sore thumb he ran against the track in the bay shore with their that they last year and aqueduct. Were everything with speed speed speed he came from off the pace the punishing Ron something went wrong in the woody Stephens but he came back in April Brent NIDA buyer. Did it by beating mighty Seles who came out to win next time out. And I think I found another single from the in this late pick for the long haul they were did you end up in the Maryland sprint which goes as the tenth race on Saturday. The Albert was for a lot of the same Mike you go back it was. Sources for race horses once it's so obvious to work out that ninety fire February 17 in the senate some problems in the woody Stephens but I. Clearly. Brown. The work I was off. Earl. More on all day. It is our except that three or that there are all early be. But they're out track is landlocked. Not good for work. And inside I. You act the law all all well liked books tremendous industry. Again given the trainer this set up and. Our gonna make you go through the eleventh the year these turf sprints or tough enough now it's turf sprint on a potentially. Potentially wet turf and the eleventh is part of a late pick for what you do in the very one going five furlongs on turf their Pimco. Yet this is something wrong with good values in all like it is is that correct in the one to figure courses that girl knows that. The girls know that is that 10 walk. Fire he. Ornate yielding. You are forced that's certainly what we're against democratic. It would be yielding walk over on the grandstand there sir I don't know that. We deal but the fact it was a similar kind of worse. There's keep it running on that highway all tree is such a difference between what you get on these that mid Atlantic earth. Mid western kind of wrecked our forces are you girls know that the public should I log out they're on these terms where it. That's why don't go back electoral cop and an absolutely. Great. It's wide open and a lot of people might to sit the alt button to conceal accident potentially in the twelfth thicket single long haul bay. It looks like a tough race I ended up on service on the outside and Dick makes a lot of good points about girls know best. I but Jason servers just talking he's so good turf principles 40%. He's tremendous and he gets I read Ortiz so it very tough race and onto the at a lower price shots that we give you much there hopefully have a better opinion. That we did as were couple racing issues tickle get out I wanna start with the news. A legalized sports betting here at that Supreme Court came through seven to. And so now state to state. I'll we know Monmouth park in New Jersey they're ready to go on the next couple weeks and start taking bets. How is this gonna effect at all on the industry or Porsche racing Kazaa I would think there is probably some partnerships to be had between. Racing and gaming. If they can figure out can the game figures now. Yeah that's that's the question there's so many unknowns here we go on the witness structure is going to be. I mean I'm sure the leaks that they worldly. Indians here that this one would like the federal government to be in charge of absolutely want sort of rules that. Yeah. We now I think you're going to be great because the law is structured in such a way to help or is that it's gonna require a great beautiful track like Monmouth park so I'm stuck in favor of that in my state of Pennsylvania. The law that investors. Were I'm not sure a lot of people are gonna wanna jump and a 36%. Accident and may qualify. So yet. Just that a separate its that they like that. Extremely popular of course that's sports and do well I think there's a potential carry over between. Forces. And a sport that idea. Much different Pincus CEO I think that's different kind of gambler that said the dead people on the racetrack betting any gangs maybe a lot of an attractive. Yeah I think it is a one on note Alice go on fact or straight it matters a lot people are. Lot of people are excited. It's all gonna come on what the structure in your particular area and and out of the house and backed horse racing in that area. I'm as far as this weekend goes. I spent my bachelor party weekend at the preakness when Shackelford one. I years ago I've always wanted to go back so I know that Kimball code they're committed to running. At least this year and next year is at the state that Dick that if I wanna go back toward preakness at them we'll go. I have to do it next year because this things coral laurel park in 2020. Yeah I'm at at a look at. People. Maryland jockey of this product where it's obvious they want to move the ball bounces wears them in admitted that obviously that we're in an audience I'm. But there and political situation of the city all which is the opposite because he has stayed Merrill has a lot of lot of political views in the pre existing huge money generator adjustments product group with the people involved in the that four at all it's a positive. That's what they can iron out it's that they're not what they're not gonna do is is always super trap. Stay here just not it is that it's gonna wanna as the land is with no good answer I would say it's earlier Adobe out there. One of the other logistical issues. Lorillard. Equipment so what are there. And and recently it's a AMOCO and it's as it works. If people can get there get their public transportation are kind of equate to get their. So. Oh. Is it. It's gonna be fat and watch for me I bought it Bamako forever that I percent was struck before coming from I guess you're. Look I'm rose structures Imus and a. Justify going to be heavy favorite this podcast is all Lynn as much of the country will be rooting for him to get it done and set up in other Triple Crown attempt. In a couple weeks at Belmont if you are playing the race at this weekend may be not play in the races you wanna get informed. Expressed that wagering guide expressed bet dot com click on the link right there boom. You all the pics get Dick's analysis of the race got Bob knew Myers yep great statistical breakdown at. Of the preakness and now we shall see does feel like at three weeks Dick were talking about Triple Crown attempt but. It is horse racing have fought and bring an umbrella to lob Baltimore this weekend we'll talk in a few weeks or Belmont one. Bell Lott and with three weeks on Saturday will be in a money your correct. Yes absolutely. Right. In my outlook for corporate. Yeah I EA EA listen to a horse racing podcast you want people to give you big long shots and big upsets and three guys here and across the board podcast all things justify can't BP until we always say you know don't just go what are our picks. We are not how it's LB handicap these races so if you're going through. I hope we gave you some ideas on the preakness pretty dominant. A selection here of justify across the board. I'm myself that Bernie predictor Marty all think that they just too good for this field is going to win easily but it went convincingly. And preakness 143. And set up a Triple Crown attempt three weeks from Saturday in Belmont New York where we audible runs back. Audible Scotty big shot in now that's at 23. As for the preakness itself. I guys gave you some good thoughts you heard map burning your suggests that can try to be good magic. Opera second and thirties going to use the derby refugees. Lone sailor involved that mix along with bonds so Dick Girardi keying justify it on top. Not ten folding or she wants to use. Underneath any big price plus all the other selections we gave you brought the races on the day and hopefully we can put you and a good spot as for me. I'm gonna try to use justify on top obvious and to be singled him in late pick threes and pick fours. On the two other opinions I wanna point to one in the preakness and one in the Maryland sprint. In the preakness I'm gonna use 30 to 1 morning line shot dining king as a horse to get in the number even if justify wins hell even a good magic when second. And it's derby recap 12. And they come backer on the same race I'm thinking for third will pay in the trifecta. And the things that I'm thinking has going for me the number four horse in your programs 30 to 1 morning line. 46 lifetime is only losses have come. In the Kentucky cup juvenile last year as a two year old thought so highly of him they shipped in from parks to Churchill. He clipped heels early the wider felt often that was it so draw a line through that race the only race he's lost his career. A five races you ran third in this will the strike power. Was a rocket ship and got to go we really really fast so that was not disgrace for him. And he came back in the Fredricka attest he'll miss some time. With the training issues but came back and Randy big race to win at laurel the preparation for this preakness back on April 21. He's trained well since then a couple of a training sessions on what track which he's going to get on Saturday I'd John's service that's a very good job effect when he 5%. When he won last start for resources 22% dirt races he gets Javier Castellano who won the preakness a year ago. He's that's among the runner up finishes on preakness horse at that should not be in the mix he knows satellite at Pimlico. I think he got to try to skip the source in in the money it's about thirty to one. People are gonna ignore this horse because of the buyers speed figures not fast enough. It's service Bubba Kiki gets a shot at 32 wanted to gamble wanna take and I just buy is going to be dominant winner convincing winner on Saturday. On good magic obviously pretty good I'm gonna use dining king is a big price and the other horse always use. On the bottom parts and of a trifecta is and try to get it to them the exact double bill will be long sailor. Who did not get through on his race at Churchill Downs. Bumped out of the gate I'd never got to make as one Ronnie he loves a sloppy track keep one broke its main effect of sloppy track at Saratoga last September. And I think he is one that idea not going to be anywhere near the price I'm thinking is. I wanna use so my my top four and in some water would be justified. Dining king good magic lone sailor. That's my top four of those four run a triple those four run this too perfect we're gonna have a big day. The one of the race element a key in on is the Maryland spread talked about this with Dick Girardi couple minutes ago comes up at the tenth race. Are on Saturday. It starts the pick four and I'm gonna be single too long haul bag who's the outside ports in this VO for Chad Brown animate a single Hemmer early. On a minute push that. Hard with justifying. At the Bakken the pick for and it's a two million dollar guarantee pool which means even a comes back pretty chalky. It should pay okay. That'll be my big play out over the weekend. Long haul day to single to start the pick for justify singled there at the end get a couple prices in the eleventh and twelfth races. And not help the pick for concrete Tuesday. We hope it's not as wet. As this suggesting. But it looks wet and it looks like on paper you can't beat justify but that's why they call racing I either way win lose draw whatever for just the five. We're back in three weeks to get you set for the Belmont Stakes were I think. We talking about a Triple Crown any much more vulnerable Orson justified the what we had this weekend at the preakness. Good luck this weekend. Bring an umbrella to going to be in Baltimore and we'll talk to in three weeks and across the board meeting at the Belmont Stakes.
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